Canadian Energy Outlook

The first report of this 3rd edition of the Outlook provides an overview of the main trends in energy consumption and production across Canada. It also indicates how these trends relate to a broader assessment of the evolution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

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The second report of this 3rd edition of the Outlook presents scenarios where Canada reaches net-zero by 2050. Building on extensive techno-economic modelling, it compares different pathways to realize this objective and maintain it through 2060, contrasts them with a business-as-usual future where no additional policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be implemented, and discusses the transformations highlighted by these scenarios and how these can help make choices today.

Main findings

• The structural measures deployed by governments should make it possible to reduce GHG emissions in the coming years; most of the progress comes, however, from federal measures, and the actions of the provinces generally have little impact.
• Canada is on track to reduce its GHG emissions by only 14% by 2030 compared to 2005 emissions (20%, if we include the purchase of emission allowances under Québec’s Cap and Trade system and Environment and Climate Change Canada's projections of negative forest emissions), missing its 40-45% reduction target.
• From a cost-optimisation perspective, the oil and gas, industrial, and power generation sectors are expected to bear the bulk of the emission reductions in the coming years.
• With the rapid adoption of appropriate measures and various technological improvements, the transition to a net-zero economy could prove to be cost-effective, and even beneficial in economic terms.

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